1st - New England Patriots (13-3): This team is good, and improved their defense from a year ago. Brady will be Brady and Vereen will have a huge year this year, just watch. I love the Revis addition, and the fact that they get their big DT back from injury this year is huge as well.
Will do better than the predicted record if: They beat any one of the Packers, Colts, Bengals, or Broncos. I don't see good old Billy B letting them play a game where they get upset, it's just not the "patriot way".
Will do worse than the predicted record if: They suffer a huge injury like Brady or Revis. I just don't see them loosing more than 3 games with their schedule. It is probably the easiest (because of their division) schedule of any 1st place team from last year.
2nd - Miami Dolphins (8-8): I have seen some predictions of them being a 10 win team, I just don't see it. Thier O-line is going to be a disaster. Tannehill will be hitting the ground hard a lot this season. I think that their receiving core is extremely over-rated. Wallace is not worth the money he signed, and they don't have a true #2 WR. They have a number of great slot WR's, but no true #2.
Will do better than the predicted record if: I am totally wrong and the o-line is actually even decent. They play the AFC West, and I just don't see them matching up well against them, and they also have to face KC and BAL as their two additional games, plus the NFC North. They also need to develop a run game (so its not a repeat of last season).
Will do worse than the predicted record if: They choke like they did last year at the end of the year. Don't get me wrong, I like Tannehill, but you have to have a line in front of you in order to have time to pass. If their run game is the same as last year, they could really be in trouble with some of the defenses they will be facing.
3rd - Buffalo Bills (6-10): If there is one fanbase I feel really bad for it has to be these guys. They have struck out on QB after QB. Their defense is getting better, I like Sammy, but I am not sold at all on Manuel (I hope he proves me wrong). This team just faces a very challenging schedule, sorry Bills fans.
Will do better than the predicted record if: Manuel can stay healthy and have a crazy good season. They have a running game, decent o-line, good WR's, and a decent defense. We will see how good the defense can play this season, and what the QB can do.
Will do worse than the predicted record if: They suffer A LOT of injuries. I was very conservative with my pick of 6 wins. I hope that they don't do worse than this, but I guess their is always a chance.
4th - NY Jets (4-12): All you need to know is that Geno had a rough pre-season and that Rex left their starters in against the Bengals 3rd stringers to get "revenge" from last years beating. When your "revenge" game is in the pre-season your team might have a long season ahead.
Will do better than the predicted record if: A miracle happens for the second straight year? I don't know how Rex got them to play .500 football last year, but he did. They could get more than 4 wins, but again, its a tough schedule.
Will do worse than the predicted record if: They are the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS? I mean let's be honest, they signed a number of old washed-up players in the off-season, they have no o-line, and their starters only won by 8 points against 3rd stringers...do I need to say more??????
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