1st - Denver Broncos (14-2): This team was good up until the Super Bowl, and this team only got better this off-season. I really like Manning, and I like who he is throwing the ball to. This team got much tougher on defense, which needed to happen.
Will do better than predicted record if: They go undefeated, and other teams just stop showing up for the games. Okay, that is not likely, and I don't see them winning more than 14 games this season.
Will do worse than predicted record if: They have a number of let-down games. If the division is not all that good, they could look past a few teams, and land at around 11 wins...I can't see them winning any fewer games than that.
2nd - San Diego Chargers (9-7): For some reason this team just feels like a 9 win ball club. There are times where I have no other thoughts than going with my gut feeling. This is a gut feeling win number.
Will do better than predicted record if: They can upset a few teams on the schedule, and play well when they are coming east. I see them winning at least 3 divisional games. If Rivers can have a crazy good season, this team could win 11 games.
Will do worse than predicted record if: They struggle coming to play in the Eastern time zones. I am still not sold on their defense, and Rivers better not slide back from his season last year. They need to run the ball really well in the beginning of games in order to set-up the play action passes. If they have a hard time establishing the run, well it could be a rough season.
3rd - Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): I do not see this team winning as many games as they did last year. I think the defense had a season for the ages, and I doubt that they will repeat that success again. I think this team battles for a play-off spot all year, and might just fall short.
Will do better than predicted record if: They can prove me wrong on defense. This team will need stellar defense again this year in order to be back in the play-offs. If Alex Smith can become a regular play-maker then this team will have a shot at 11 wins.
Will do worse than predicted record if: They have a mediocre defense and Alex Smith continues to be just a game manager. There is nothing wrong with having a game manager as a QB, but with their schedule, I don't think it will be good enough for them to get into the play-offs.
4th - Oakland Raiders (4-12): I think if people see my 4 win prediction they will think that I am being kind, and I am...this team is bad. They signed a number of free agents in the off-season, and normally that's great...except when they are almost all washed up and have very little left to offer. Maybe one day Oakland will learn....someday, somehow, just maybe....
Will do better than predicted record if: They have found their franchise QB in Carr (I doubt it because he has a pretty bad o-line protecting for him...kinda reminds me of his brother in that regard). They need these "veterans" they have signed to come up big, oh and they need a number of other players that nobody really knows to become super-stars....
Will do worse than predicted record if: They really have no shot at winning more than 4 games this year...see what they need to happen above, and well, they are the Raiders....so we all know that isn't going to happen...good luck Raiders fans for the next number of years....I still love that Palmer trade though :)
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