1st - New Orleans Saints (11-5): This team will be solid this year. I think that their defense will be even better than last year, and they have an elite QB. They have one of the best home-field advantages on their side as well.
Will do better than predicted record if: They can sweep the division. I think that will be really hard to do in a division like this, but stranger things have happened. I think that 11 wins is a fair guess, but sometimes you can get away with a couple extra wins.
Will do worse than predicted record if: They collapse on defense. This team could be competing for a Super Bowl, but it all comes down to their defense. I think that they have a defense that is good enough to win the division, but they might find that come deep play-off time, the defense might let them down.
2nd - Tampa Bay Bucs (10-6): I like this team as a play-off team, however I don't like the money they spent in the off-season. As a Bengals fan, I can tell you, that Johnson is only as good as those around him. I like the Collins signing, but not for that much.
Will do better than predicted record if: They have a top 7 defense, and can win 5 of 6 divisional game this year. I am not sure how their QB situation will play out, but I like the targets they have to throw to. This offense has the potential to be something special this year.
Will do worse than predicted record if: They lack a pass rush. This might sound crazy, but like I said, Johnson is only as good as those around him. When Geno went down last year, he disappeared...he needs help, and so does the seconday. They better get teams into third and longs, if not, it could be a long season.
3rd - Atlanta Falcons (9-7): I think that last year was just a weird year for the falcons. They have way too much skill to be a sub .500 team. I like them to compete for the division, but in the end, fall just short of it.
Will do better/worse than predicted record if: They find some defense. This team has a lot of questions on defense, and I think that the record will reflect how well the defense plays. That is why I put both of these categories under one point. It all comes down to defense.
4th - Carolina Panthers (7-9): I know that fans will have an issue with this record, but I just don't trust Cam. He lost his best WR and he looked horrible in the pre-season. If there is one team I could be dead wrong on, this is probably them.
Will do better/worse than predicted record if: They can come together as a unit on offense. The defense will be good, it will come down to the play of Cam. If he plays as nervous as he did during the pre-season, then it could be a long season down in Carolina.
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