2014 NFL Week 3 Picks

2014 NFL Week 3 Picks

I did better last week going 8-8.  I am getting the feeling that this year the NFL will be very unpredictable.  Let's be honest, it makes the weekly grind more fun that way too.  Let's dive in:

Bucs @ Falcons:   I have been really disappointed with the Bucs this year.  Unfortunately for them, they are facing a very angry Falcons team on the road.  I think that the Falcons get back on track this game.  If you own a Bucs RB start them tonight against the Falcons.  Falcons 28, Bucs 17.

Titans @ Bengals:  This could be a serious trap game for the Bengals.  They injury list is really growing, and I hope they don't sit most of the team because they are only playing the Titans.  I have not picked my beloved Bengals yet this year, but there is a first time for everything.  Bengals 24, Titans 6.

Chargers @ Bills:  I like this Charger team, and I was very wrong on the Bills.  I know that West Coast teams struggle when they come towards the East in early games.  I think this Bills defense is very underrated, and is actually really good.  I like the Bills.  Bills 17, Chargers 16.

Ravens @ Browns:  This is a key game for both teams.  Both of these teams already have a divisional loss, and both could have won that game they lost.  Watch out for this Ravens team...that organization seems to thrive on being under the radar or having all the cards in the deck stacked against them.  But as any fan from the AFC North knows, the dog pound is not an easy place to play.  With all that being said, I like the Ravens on extra rest.  Ravens 21, Browns 17.

Redskins @ Eagles:  This should be a very interesting game.  I know that the Eagles have suffered a number of injuries on the offensive line, and the Redskins defensive line is actually pretty decent.  I think that Jackson will have a decent game.  With all that said, Chip is Chip, and I like the Eagles more.  Eagles 27, Redskins 24.

Texans @ Giants:  There are some people picking the Giants this game.  My response: have you seen the Giants play at all this year?  Houston's defense is for real, and they are going to give Eli a rough day.  Texans 17, Giants 10.

Colts @ Jags:  Well I don't think anyone would have thought at the beginning of the year that this would be a battle for the basement, but here it is folks.  I honestly don't see this game even being close.  This game will be very theraputic for the Colts.  Colts 31, Jags 9.

Packers @ Lions:  If you are looking for a game with a lot of points up on the board, look no further.  This game will come down to clock control and turnovers.  If you have any fantasy players in this game...play them.  Packers 38, Lions 36.

Raiders @ Patriots:  I really feel sorry for the Raiders this game.  The entire deck is stacked against them.  I don't like them traveling to the East, I don't like their team, and I really don't like the fact that the Pats are coming off a rough start to their season.  Patriots 26, Raiders 6.

Cowboys @ Rams:  Honestly, I don't like either of these teams.  I still have no idea how the Cowboys beat the Titans last week.  I am making this pick off of the fact that one team is worse than the other.  Cowboys 19, Rams 6.

Vikings @ Saints:  The one team that is probably more pissed than any other team in the NFL is the Saints.  They have lost two games, and many people (myself included) picked them to win the Superbowl.  I don't see them losing this game.  Saints 38, Vikings 12.

49ers @ Cardinals:  I am not impressed at all with the 49ers so far this year.  They have looked pretty pedestrian except for one half against a horrible Cowboys team.  The Cardinals have looked pretty good, especially that defense.  Cardinals 24, 49ers 21.

Chiefs @ Dolphins:  This is short and sweet.  The Dolphins that showed up last week is who I thought they were.  I pick them this week only because they are playing the Chiefs.  Dolphins 24, Chiefs 19.

Broncos @ Seahawks:  This is going to be a good game because it is in Seattle.  Is than any team in the NFL that plays so differently on the road other than the Seahawks????  This will be a tight game, but in the end I see the Seahawks D saving the day.  Seahawks 21, Broncos 19.

Steelers @ Panthers:  Even with the Steelers on extra rest I don't like their defense.  One week they can't stop the run, the very next week, they can't stop the pass.  Their offensive line look mediocre at best.  The Panthers D looks great this year.  Panthers 27, Steelers 17.

Bears @ Jets:  I am really not excited about this Monday night game at all.  It's actually probably good I have a meeting that night and have to go to bed early due to a early morning Commitment the next day.  The Jets will stop the run, Cutler will throw some picks, and the Jets defense won't do much with the ball.  There I just saved you three hours of your life.  Bears 24, Jets 19.

Season Stats: 

Last Week 8-8

Season: 14-18

2014 NFL Week 2 Picks

2014 NFL Week 2 Picks

Last week was not the best week for me in terms of picks.  I went a miserable 6-10 last week, but there were a ton of upsets.

Steelers @ Ravens:  This is always a good game.  The Ravens need this game really bad.  They lose this one and they are 0-2 in the division and at home to start the year.  With all that has happened in the Rice situation, the Raven have to respond.  The Steelers defense is not that great, and I think the Ravens will have a big day on the ground.  Plain and simple, the Ravens historically step up during difficult times.  Ravens 20, Steelers 14.

Falcons @ Bengals:  This game will be a shootout.  The Bengals (like most teams after week 1) suffered a lot of key injuries on defense.  The Falcons have no offensive line, and no defensive line.  The concern I have is the emotional win last week for the Bengals.  Historically, the Bengals loose this game.  Until they prove otherwise, I see the Falcons on top this week.  Falcons 38, Bengals 35.

Dolphins @ Bills: When I am wrong, I will admit it.  I underestimated the Dolphins this year.  If the Dolphins can continue to run the ball really well, watch out AFC.  I see this game only being close because it is a divisional game.  The Dolphins will shut down the run and put the game in EJ's hands.  Dolphins 24, Bills 13.

Saints @ Browns:  I kinda feel bad for the Browns.  They are going to face a very angry Saints team.  Brees is going to have a huge game this week.  If he is on your fantasy team...start him.  This week we will see how the Browns offense is when they are playing a decent defense.  Saints 38, Browns 12.

Cardinals @ Giants:  I don't think the Giants stand a chance in this game.  The only thing that they have going for them is that the Cardinals are playing on a short week and have to travel across the country.  Cardinals 25, Giants 17.

Lions @ Panthers:  This should be a great game.  Good offense against a good defense.  The only concern I have is Cam coming back and missing a week.  I said last week that I like this Lions team, and the liking will continue this week.  Lions 24, Panthers 22.

Jaguars @ Redskins:  I really don't know  who to pick in this game.  I wonder how much longer RG III will be the QB in Washington?  He cannot continue to turn the ball over.  Ultimately I am picking the 'Skins because they are at home.  Redskins 17, Jags 14.

Cowboys @ Titans:  I picked up Locker in a few of my leagues simple because he is facing the Cowboys defense.  I love this matchup for the Titans.  This should be an easy win for them.  Titans 38, Cowboys 10.

Patriots @ Vikings:  After seeing some film from the second half of the game on Sunday, one has to worry about the offensive line of the Pats.   Zimmer is a great defensive coach, and because of that, I think it will be somewhat close.  Patriots 27, Vikings 21.

Rams @ Bucs:  This is another game that is going to go to the home team.  I don't know if the Rams can loose another high profile player at this point.  You hate to see a promising season go down the drain.  Bucs 18, Rams 6.

Seahawks @ Chargers:  I think that this would have been a good game if both teams were coming off of the same amount of rest.  I know the Chargers are at home, but they are on a short week and the Seahawks are coming off a long week.  Bad news for the Chargers.  Seahawks 31, Chargers 10.

Chiefs @ Broncos:  I knew the Chiefs were going to be worse than last year, but with them losing two of the starters up front of defense, that is really going to hurt.  Manning will be Manning, and I really like this match-up for the Broncos.  Broncos 45, Chiefs 17.

Jets @ Packers:  The other team I feel bad for this week is the Jets.  I know the Packers are not happy with what happened a week ago.  I see Rodgers having a huge game, and Lacy making up for last week to his fantasy owners.  Packers 38, Jets 10.

Texans @ Raiders:  This one is simple.  JJ Watt vs a mediocre offense line and a rookie QB.  Fitz could have a big game this week.  I like the Texans in this one, and hey!  They can match their win total from last year!  Texans 24, Raiders 17.

Bears @ 49ers:  I don't know what happened to Culter and the Bears offense last week.  To say that it was a disappointing performance would be an understatement.  I hope they can get back on track, but I am not sure this week will be the case.  49ers 25, Bears 17.

Eagles @ Colts:  I am looking forward to this game so much.  Monday night cannot get here soon enough.  I like Foles to get back on track this week.  Luck will have another huge week fantasy wise.  I see a two minute drill with Foles leading the charge.  Eagles 38, Colts 35.

Happy Football ALL!!!!!

2014 Week 1 Picks

2014 NFL Week 1 Picks

Josh Shuster's Picks:

Packers @ Seahawks:  I don't think that the NFL could have started with any better of a game.  This is one that I know all fans are looking forward to, even if it isn't their team that is playing.  My heart says Packers on this one, but my mind says Seahawks.  Defense beats Offense most of the time, and I think that will play out in this game.  I am not sure about a lot with this game, but I am pretty sure that it will be a close game.  Seahawks 24, Packers 21.

Bengals @ Ravens:  I know that it is early, but this is a statement game for the Bengals.  M and T Bank Stadium has been a house of horrors for Andy the last 3 years.  The Ravens are a team that plays better football the second half of the season, so the Bengals need this game.  If they don't win, they will probably get swept by the Ravens this year.  I like the new Ravens offense, outside of the o-line.  I also like the Ravens at home.  This game will be won by a touchdown or less by either team, and turnovers will play a huge roll.  Which defense will force more?  Ravens 23, Bengals 17.

Bills @ Bears:  I think the Bears will win this game easy.  I love all the weapons that Jay has to throw to, and they have a great RB.  The Bills defense should be defense, but I'm not sure outside of a run game what else they have on offense.  Bears 31, Bills 9.

Titans @ Chiefs:  I think the Chiefs can have another good year this year.  The Titans, I'm not sold on just yet.  I still think they are too young, and have too many holes.  I expect Charles to have a huge day.  Chiefs 27, Titans 10.

Patriots @ Dolphins:  I know that a lot of people are high on the Dolphins this year, I'm not one of them.  I think Brady and Co. will have a big day, and that this will be the beginning of a much improve Pats defense from last year.  Pats 35, Dolphins 6. 

Jaguars @ Eagles:  The Eagles will be facing a team that I think is better than most give them credit for.  The Jags are moving forward in a positive direction.  But, when all is said and done, Chip's offense will just be too much.  Eagles 38, Jaguars 17.

Saints @ Falcons:  This has the makings of a very good game.  I think the Falcons will be much better than last year.  I also think the Saints have a great shot at being in the Super Bowl this year.  All that being said, Saints take this game.  Saints 32, Falcons 27.

Raiders @ Jets:  These two teams are perfect to face off week one.  They have a lot in common: they stink, have many washed-up players, and have no offense.  I think the first one to 17 points wins the game.  I'm taking the Raiders.  Raiders 20, Jets 9.

Vikings @ Rams:  What a blow for the Rams to loose Sammy B for the year.  I love Mike Zimmer, but I don't think the Vikings have an offense outside of AP.  The Rams have one of the most under-rated d-lines in all of football, and they will contain AP as much as you can contain AP.  Rams 17, Vikings 14.

Browns @ Steelers:  I know that many people will see this game and say blowout, but this is an AFC North game.  I don't think the Browns will win this game, but after seeing the Steelers defense this pre-season Ben Tate would be a great player to start if you have a fantasy team.  Steelers 24, Browns 21.

Redskins @ Texans:  I am not big on the Redskins this season.  I don't like their coach, and I don't like what I saw from RG III this pre-season.  But, even with all of that, I still like them better than the team with the number 1 pick last year.  Redskins 24, Texans 18.

Panthers @ Bucs:  I think even if Newton plays this game that the Bucs are a better team.  If I think two teams are evenly matched talent wise, I always give the game to the home team.  I think the Panthers will have a very hard time scoring on the road in this game.  Bucs 19, Panthers 10.

49ers @ Cowboys:  The 49ers looked horrible on offense this pre-season.  The one thing that will be a huge help?  Facing this Cowboys defense.  I think the Cowboys comb over all the other teams practice squads this season just to find players who can start and fill in.  If you can put up a ton of points because of your offense, but have no defense, you aren't going to win many games.  49ers 35, Cowboys 27.

Colts @ Broncos:  Wow is this a great football matchup.  I am stoked to be able to watch this game.  Both teams have great offenses, lead by great QB's.  I have to believe, at this point, that the Broncos have the better defense.  They get the edge.  Don't be surprised if this game comes down to a last minute drive and field goal.  Broncos 38, Colts 35.

Giants @ Lions:  I am really pulling for the Lions this year.  I want them to be in the play-offs so badly.  If Eli can learn to stop throwing the ball to the other team, the Giants have a real shot this game.  I think Eli throws two picks that cost the Giants the game.  Lions 38, Giants 32.

Chargers @ Cardinals:  What a great game to end week 1 on.  I think the Cardinals are a sleeper team this year, especially that defense.  The Chargers are my sleeper AFC team.  One of these two teams will not be a "sleeper" after this week.  I am picking a 10 point win for the Chargers because I see a Palmer pick 6 on the last drive of the game.  Chargers 31, Cardinals 21.

2014 NFC East Predictions

Okay, I am going to use a cliche', this is the NFC LEAST division.  There is one team that can win the division, and three others that are bleh...

1st - Philadelphia Eagles (12-4):  I got the 12 win total because they will sweep the division and only need to go 6-4 in the other 10 games...I see 3 easy wins, and 3 possible upsets...I like this team.

Will do better than predicted record if: They play defense a little better than the second half of the season last year.  This team really came together, and I love some of the additions in the off-season...I have ALWAYS thought D-Jax was over-rated...he can only run vertical...that's it...Sproles will be a huge upgrade.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have no defense and take games for granted.  They need to be careful of their divisional games, because if they get too caught up in being the best team in the division, they might fall before the season even starts.

2nd - Washington Redskins (7-9): I think that 7 wins is beyond generous.  I know their new HC very well, and when an old fan base is ready to pack that persons belongings just so they get out...you might have a problem...Good luck Redskins fans with Jay as your head coach...good riddance 

Will do better than predicted record if: They run the football, and their defense can step up big time.  The good news, this is the only team that can really compete with the Eagles for the division.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  Jay Gruden decides to let some other person run his team.  This guy cannot put together a game-plan to save his life.  When the Bengals fans are ready to get rid of you, then you know there is an issue.  I hope he is not doing the play calling.  If he is, then you will pass almost 60% of the time, even on 3rd and 1.

3rd - NY Giants (6-10):  This team is one that I really don't know what to make of.  I have a hard time counting out a team with a QB that has won any number of Super Bowls, but I just don't see them winning more than 6 games.  I could be wrong though.

Will do better than predicted record if:  The defense can gel together and play really well as a unit.  Another huge part of the Giants season depends on Eli...he CANNOT turn the ball over as much as he did last year.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  Eli plays at all like he did last year.  The defense plays at all like they did last year.  Also, if they give up half-way through the season.  It sounds crazy, but there are always a few teams that do this every year.

4th - Dallas Cowboys (5-11): We might be watching one of the worst defenses to ever set foot on a football field.  For the most part, I like their offense.  I would be shocked if they still have the same coach going into next season.

Will do better than predicted if:  They find a combination that actually works on defense.  They also will need to run the ball a lot if they are going to try to keep the other team's offense off of the field.  That might be the only way that they actually stop another team from scoring.

Will do worse than predicted if:  Everything goes wrong for them.  If they put themselves in 3rd and long frequently, they will be in trouble.  This team also has a couple of divas...this could possibly be a team with a lot of fireworks on the sidelines.  I am seeing Dez freaking out on the sidelines all season (much like Chad Johnson would years ago).

2014 NFC West Predictions

This is one of the best divisions in football, and I love watching these teams battle it out with each other.  This is a difficult division to predict, and I know some fans will be very disappointed with my predictions.

1st - Seattle Seahawks (12-4): This team has a real shot at repeating this year.  They have not lost a whole lot from last year, and they kept their coaching staff.  They will make yet another run.

Will do better than predicted record if: They sweep the division, and play really well on the road. They have a great home-field advantage, and I see them winning at least half their games on the road. Wilson needs to continue to play well, and play with confidence.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They suffer a lot of injuries, and the defense doesn't adjust to the new rules.  They have two options, complain about the new rules, or learn to adapt...which will they do???

2nd - Arizona Cardinals (9-7): This team just lives in the shadow of the Seahawks and 49ers...this team will finally get some decent notice around the league

Will do better than predicted record if: Palmer can have a huge season.  I think that they have a great defense, it all depends on the Palmer situation.  He has the tools around him to play well, it is just a question on whether he will come through or not.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have the Palmer that loves to give points away to the other team.  One of Palmer's problems has always been the Pick 6.  He had a pretty good year last year, and if he plays any worse than last year, it could be a long year.

3rd - San Francisco 49ers (8-8): The reason I have them at 8-8 is because there is only so much that a team can go through and still win.  They have a number of injuries already, and the suspension to Smith will hurt them.  I have a huge concern about their offense.

Will do better than predicted record if: They can have a record of at least 4-5 when they get Smith back.  If Kap can figure out a way to get the ball to the play-makers that are around him, this team could be dangerous.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  Kap and the offense look as bad as they did during the pre-season.  This offense could not score on anyone.  They didn't even look like they were on the same page during any game.  We shall see if these starters can get their act together.

4th - St. Louis Rams (6-10): I feel so bad for Rams fans.  Every year they get their hopes up that Sammy B will play for them, and every year he gets hurt.  They need a healthy QB and this team could be dangerous.

Will do better than predicted record if: They find a QB that can play somewhat reasonable football.  They have a defense that is a force to be reckoned with.  If their defense can score a lot of points for them this year, something good could happen. They just need a QB that can be a game-manager that will stay on the field for them.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have to pass the ball a lot this year.  If they can find a way to hand the ball off, and use the screen game they might be ok.  The last thing this team needs to do is put ANY football game in the hands of a QB.

2014 NFC South Predictions

This division could be a very strong division.  I see there being 3 teams with winning records.  This division will battle each other, and expect a lot of points to be scored from this division.

1st - New Orleans Saints (11-5):  This team will be solid this year.  I think that their defense will be even better than last year, and they have an elite QB.  They have one of the best home-field advantages on their side as well.

Will do better than predicted record if: They can sweep the division.  I think that will be really hard to do in a division like this, but stranger things have happened.  I think that 11 wins is a fair guess, but sometimes you can get away with a couple extra wins.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They collapse on defense.  This team could be competing for a Super Bowl, but it all comes down to their defense.  I think that they have a defense that is good enough to win the division, but they might find that come deep play-off time, the defense might let them down.

2nd - Tampa Bay Bucs (10-6): I like this team as a play-off team, however I don't like the money they spent in the off-season.  As a Bengals fan, I can tell you, that Johnson is only as good as those around him.  I like the Collins signing, but not for that much.

Will do better than predicted record if: They have a top 7 defense, and can win 5 of 6 divisional game this year.  I am not sure how their QB situation will play out, but I like the targets they have to throw to.  This offense has the potential to be something special this year.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They lack a pass rush.  This might sound crazy, but like I said, Johnson is only as good as those around him.  When Geno went down last year, he disappeared...he needs help, and so does the seconday.  They better get teams into third and longs, if not, it could be a long season.

3rd - Atlanta Falcons (9-7): I think that last year was just a weird year for the falcons.  They have way too much skill to be a sub .500 team.  I like them to compete for the division, but in the end, fall just short of it.

Will do better/worse than predicted record if: They find some defense.  This team has a lot of questions on defense, and I think that the record will reflect how well the defense plays.  That is why I put both of these categories under one point.  It all comes down to defense.

4th - Carolina Panthers (7-9): I know that fans will have an issue with this record, but I just don't trust Cam.  He lost his best WR and he looked horrible in the pre-season.  If there is one team I could be dead wrong on, this is probably them.

Will do better/worse than predicted record if: They can come together as a unit on offense.  The defense will be good, it will come down to the play of Cam.  If he plays as nervous as he did during the pre-season, then it could be a long season down in Carolina.

2014 NFC North Predictions

This should be an interesting division this year...if they Packers can stay even remotely healthy, I like them a lot this year...the other teams...I honestly have no idea what to make of them.

1st - Green Bay Packers (13-3): If there is one team that will give the Seahawks a run for their money, it will be the Packers.  I love my dopple-ganger as a QB in the NFL.  He is one of those players that just makes those around him better.  This team will be tough to stop this year.

Will do better than predicted record if: They can find a defense and a running game.  I really thought when they obtained Richardson in the trade with the Browns that they would find themselves deeper in the play-offs.  But, as it turns out, the Browns may have had a miracle happen...a good football move.  This team could win 14 or 15 games if their opponets suffer big injuries.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They continue to get hit with the injury bug worse than any other team in the NFL like they have the last few years....It is so frustrating when this happens to your team, and I feel for Packers fans

2nd - Chicago Bears (10-6): I like their offense, and I think that Mr. Jay plays well in this system.  I have some concerns with the defense, but I like their defense enough to think they are a double-digit win team.

Will do better than predicted record if: They have a good defense.  To me, this team comes down to how the defense plays out.  I know that the offense will put up over 21 points a game, its just a matter of how many points that defense gives up.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have a non-existent defense, and Mr. Jay struggles in the offense.  I don't see them being any worse than an 8-8 team with the receivers they have.  I think that, like for most teams, injuries could really hurt this team.

3rd - Detroit Lions (9-7): I am one of the few people that have the Lions with a winning record, but it is time for them to cash in on the talent they have.  One of the biggest issues they have had over the last few years has been the lack of discipline.  I hope that will be fixed.

Will do better than predicted record if: They find a really good defense this year.  I think that the defense has a shot at being defense, and I like a number of different parts.  They just have A LOT of question marks.  Normally question marks play out in one of two ways: good or bad...that is what the season comes down to, question marks.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They lack discipline again, and the question marks go the wrong way.  Like I said, I really like this team, but they need to play smart football as a whole, and RUN THE BALL.

4th - Minnesota Vikings (5-11):  Vikings fans I do have one bit of good news...you have the Head Coach that almost all Bengals fans actually want....we will trade you...I have bad news, you have no QB...like its scary when you all look at the Vikings roster under the QB column.

Will do better than predicted record if: They run the ball all day, and Zimmer takes over play calling on the defensive side.  The one thing this team has going for them is that teams will probably look past them, and they might get a few extra wins that way.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They pass the ball any where near 50% of any game they play.  The need to just hand the ball off to AP, and let him go to town.  If they decide to put the game in the hands of any of their QB's...run for the hills Vikings fans...I'm serious....

2014 AFC West Predictions

Both of the West's are stacked this year...I love watching the 4:00 games because my Bengals have played already and I can just enjoy the games...and what great games they are to enjoy too!  Let's get down to the predictions:

1st - Denver Broncos (14-2): This team was good up until the Super Bowl, and this team only got better this off-season.  I really like Manning, and I like who he is throwing the ball to.  This team got much tougher on defense, which needed to happen.

Will do better than predicted record if: They go undefeated, and other teams just stop showing up for the games.  Okay, that is not likely, and I don't see them winning more than 14 games this season.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have a number of let-down games.  If the division is not all that good, they could look past a few teams, and land at around 11 wins...I can't see them winning any fewer games than that.

2nd - San Diego Chargers (9-7):  For some reason this team just feels like a 9 win ball club.  There are times where I have no other thoughts than going with my gut feeling.  This is a gut feeling win number.

Will do better than predicted record if: They can upset a few teams on the schedule, and play well when they are coming east.  I see them winning at least 3 divisional games.  If Rivers can have a crazy good season, this team could win 11 games.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They struggle coming to play in the Eastern time zones.  I am still not sold on their defense, and Rivers better not slide back from his season last year.  They need to run the ball really well in the beginning of games in order to set-up the play action passes.  If they have a hard time establishing the run, well it could be a rough season.

3rd - Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): I do not see this team winning as many games as they did last year.  I think the defense had a season for the ages, and I doubt that they will repeat that success again.  I think this team battles for a play-off spot all year, and might just fall short.

Will do better than predicted record if: They can prove me wrong on defense.  This team will need stellar defense again this year in order to be back in the play-offs.  If Alex Smith can become a regular play-maker then this team will have a shot at 11 wins.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have a mediocre defense and Alex Smith continues to be just a game manager.  There is nothing wrong with having a game manager as a QB, but with their schedule, I don't think it will be good enough for them to get into the play-offs.  

4th - Oakland Raiders (4-12): I think if people see my 4 win prediction they will think that I am being kind, and I am...this team is bad.  They signed a number of free agents in the off-season, and normally that's great...except when they are almost all washed up and have very little left to offer.  Maybe one day Oakland will learn....someday, somehow, just maybe....

Will do better than predicted record if: They have found their franchise QB in Carr (I doubt it because he has a pretty bad o-line protecting for him...kinda reminds me of his brother in that regard). They need these "veterans" they have signed to come up big, oh and they need a number of other players that nobody really knows to become super-stars....

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They really have no shot at winning more than 4 games this year...see what they need to happen above, and well, they are the Raiders....so we all know that isn't going to happen...good luck Raiders fans for the next number of years....I still love that Palmer trade though :)

2014 AFC South Predictions

If the Colts find a way to lose this division it would be impressive.  It is them and three other teams that will all be under .500 for the season.  Maybe one of the Jaguars, Titans, or Texans can somehow find a way to hit .500, but I doubt it.

1st - Indianapolis Colts (13-3): I am predicting this record because they get an automatic 6 wins because of the division they play in, they will probably take 3 of 4 from the AFC North, and they will probaby take 3 of 4 from the NFC East. 

Will do better than predicted record if: They can find a defense and a running game.  I really thought when they obtained Richardson in the trade with the Browns that they would find themselves deeper in the play-offs.  But, as it turns out, the Browns may have had a miracle happen...a good football move.  This team could win 14 or 15 games if their opponets suffer big injuries.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They have no running game or defense for the whole season, Luck gets hurt, and their division is better than expected.  I don't see this team loosing more than 5 games for the whole year.  This team is a lock for the play-offs.

2nd - Tennessee Titans (7-9): I am not even sure they can realistically hit the seven win mark.  I like the youth they have on this team, and their defense is getting there.  They just seem to be missing a whole lot.  In two years, Titan's fans, you will be happy.

Will do better than predicted record if: They can come together as a team and play out of their minds for a whole year.  If they can win 4 of 6 from the division, you never know what could possibly happen.  They play the games for a reason, and this team might prove why that is.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They play at all like they did last year.  I really don't know what to think of this team because they have the potential to gel and play well, but they also have the potential to be playing for a top 3 pick next year.   If they loose 4 games in their division, it will be a long season down in Tennessee.

3rd - Houston Texans (6-10): I don't think I have ever been so wrong about a team as I was last year with the Texans.  Normally I am pretty accurate with my picks, but I had them going to the Super Bowl.  Well, don't worry, I am not picking them to be any where near that this year.

Will do better than predicted record if: They have the best defense in the league and they find a QB anywhere (who knows, maybe they will be asking folks in the stands to try out).  I like their D-line....it is staked, but they are weak at a number of other places.  They could win 7 or maybe even 8 games if some different plays fall their way.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They continue to turn the ball over.  I have never in my life seen so many pick 6's.  If the defense is anything other than a top half of the league, it will be a long season down in Texas.

4th - Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12):  Here is the thing about the Jags...I love their coach...he is an intense guy, but he has no players....like at all.  I am picking more wins than most are for the Jags this season, and that should say something...plus they get to open against the Eagles...have fun with that...

Will do better than predicted record if: They have a number of plays, penalities, and games go their way...Honestly, I don't really see them having a remote shot of winning more than 4 games.

Will do worse than predicted record if:  They play like they have for the last few years.  Even when they have had players on their team, they find a way for it all to go wrong.  This team is still 3 years away from doing anything relevant in the NFL...and man I hope I'm wrong on this...

2014 AFC North Predictions

I am partial to this division since my beloved Bengals play in this division.  The teams in this division just beat the crap out of each other year after year.  The one thing I love about this division is that all the teams can never take any game for granted...if they do, they loose.  Let's get down to the predictions:

1st - Baltimore Ravens (9-7): This seems like a low number of wins to clinch a division, but like I said this division just beats the crap out of each other.  I like the fact that the offense is concentrating more on the run this year, and the defense year after year is always good.  Ray Rice will have a better year than last year (which is hard to do considering he was not his normal player last year).

Will do better than the predicted record if:  Their o-line can learn to protect Joe this year and open up holes for the run.  I love the Steve Smith signing, and I think that he will fit in very well with this team, and will lead the team in receptions.

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  The o-line plays anything like they did in the pre-season.  The o-line was getting thrown around like rag dolls during the pre-season.  As a Bengals fan, I am looking very forward to their d-line go up against these guys.  If their offense cannot stay on the field, and they cannot run the ball...it could spell a long season in Baltimore.

2nd - Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): If there was a team that looked mediocre last year it was the Steelers.  Their team in the beginning of the season was terrible, but looked so different during the second half of the season.  I just can't look past that, honestly.  I can't stand the Steelers, but I have to give it to them, they seem to have a decent team year after year.

Will do better than the predicted record if:  The can sweep two of the three divison rivals.  It sounds simple, but as any fan in the AFC North will tell you...it's not.  IF their o-line can come together and stay healthy, they have a shot to be a 10 win team.  But in all honesty, it comes down to a defense that looks like it needs work.

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  Their defense continues to play like it did in the pre-season.  When a bunch of second stringers is moving the ball up and down on the majority of your defensive starters you might be in for a long season.  They also have been loosing some serious WR depth the last few years, but someone seems to always step up...let's see what happens.

3rd - Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): This may surprise people that I have them down here with a losing record.  I think that this season will say A LOT about Andy and Marvin.  I have them here because their schedule is tough and they play a lot of prime-time games.  The Bengals have struggled in both prime-time games and games against good teams.  Andy has been miserable in those games.

Will do better than the predicted record if:  They can prove their history wrong under the Marvin Lewis and Andy era.  Plain and simple, if they beat good teams, and win games in prime-time...they will be a team that will be a force in the play-offs.  I am trying not to let my fandom get in the way, and I need to see my Bengals break their past history.

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  They suffer a ton of injuries like they did last year.  I know they are a part of the game, but the Bengals had numerous practice squad people playing on defense last year by the end of the season.  If Andy does not step up, and Marvin continues to have his team prepared poorly for big games then it could be worse then the 7 wins I predicted.

4th - Cleveland Browns (5-11): Some how the Browns seem to win a few games every year that they have no business winning.  I feel bad for the fans in Cleveland, and then I remember that they have won a play-off game more recently than the Bengals...then my sympathy disapears.  Folks, it will probably be a long season, but hey, you have LeBron back right????

Will do better than the predicted record if:  The defense can score about 21 points a game.  The offense will need a lot of help this season.  If they can stay healthier than the other teams in the division, then they have a shot at a couple of upsets.

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  The QB's play the way the did in the pre-season.  WOW, you want to talk about a franchise that needs QB stability, look no further than the Browns.  If their defense has injuries left and right, you might be looking at a 1-15 team.

2014 AFC East Predictions

This divison overall continues year after year to have one really good team...an above average team...a bad team...and a terrible team.  Once again I am predicting that you can pencil the Pats into the play-offs before the season even begins (forget the pencil, use a pen...its a lock).

1st - New England Patriots (13-3):  This team is good, and improved their defense from a year ago.  Brady will be Brady and Vereen will have a huge year this year, just watch.  I love the Revis addition, and the fact that they get their big DT back from injury this year is huge as well.

Will do better than the predicted record if:  They beat any one of the Packers, Colts, Bengals, or Broncos.  I don't see good old Billy B letting them play a game where they get upset, it's just not the "patriot way".

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  They suffer a huge injury like Brady or Revis.  I just don't see them loosing more than 3 games with their schedule.  It is probably the easiest (because of their division) schedule of any 1st place team from last year.

2nd - Miami Dolphins (8-8): I have seen some predictions of them being a 10 win team, I just don't see it.  Thier O-line is going to be a disaster.  Tannehill will be hitting the ground hard a lot this season.  I think that their receiving core is extremely over-rated.  Wallace is not worth the money he signed, and they don't have a true #2 WR.  They have a number of great slot WR's, but no true #2.

Will do better than the predicted record if:  I am totally wrong and the o-line is actually even decent.  They play the AFC West, and I just don't see them matching up well against them, and they also have to face KC and BAL as their two additional games, plus the NFC North.  They also need to develop a run game (so its not a repeat of last season).

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  They choke like they did last year at the end of the year.  Don't get me wrong, I like Tannehill, but you have to have a line in front of you in order to have time to pass.  If their run game is the same as last year, they could really be in trouble with some of the defenses they will be facing.

3rd - Buffalo Bills (6-10):  If there is one fanbase I feel really bad for it has to be these guys.  They have struck out on QB after QB.  Their defense is getting better, I like Sammy, but I am not sold at all on Manuel (I hope he proves me wrong).  This team just faces a very challenging schedule, sorry Bills fans.

Will do better than the predicted record if:  Manuel can stay healthy and have a crazy good season.  They have a running game, decent o-line, good WR's, and a decent defense.  We will see how good the defense can play this season, and what the QB can do.

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  They suffer A LOT of injuries.  I was very conservative with my pick of 6 wins.  I hope that they don't do worse than this, but I guess their is always a chance.

4th - NY Jets (4-12):  All you need to know is that Geno had a rough pre-season and that Rex left their starters in against the Bengals 3rd stringers to get "revenge" from last years beating.  When your "revenge" game is in the pre-season your team might have a long season ahead.

Will do better than the predicted record if:  A miracle happens for the second straight year?  I don't know how Rex got them to play .500 football last year, but he did.  They could get more than 4 wins, but again, its a tough schedule.

Will do worse than the predicted record if:  They are the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS?  I mean let's be honest, they signed a number of old washed-up players in the off-season, they have no o-line, and their starters only won by 8 points against 3rd stringers...do I need to say more??????